Nostrathomas Predicts: Which Teams Hold Up in Week 2

Thursday night, Nostrathomas took the Cincinnati Bengals +6 to not only cover, but also win over the Cleveland Browns to start the Week 2 NFL slate. Well, the Bengals covered the spread as rookie quarterback Joe Burrow kept his team in the game but Cincinnati’s defense couldn’t stop Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense.

Week 1 gave Nostrathomas a rough start to the season with a 7-9 against the spread and 9-7 straight-up. Thursday night’s result puts Nostrathomas 8-9 against the spread this season and 9-8 straight-up.

There are some good values that the public should be able to put together for this week. Let’s dig into the weekend slate.

All point spreads from VegasInsider.com

Game of the Week

Baltimore Ravens -7 vs Houston Texans (4:25PM ET; NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)

The Houston Texans hit the second week of their grueling opening schedule by hosting the Baltimore Ravens.

The Texans are in danger of falling to 0-2 in what looks to be a tough AFC South division. Houston had problems on both sides of the ball against the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

Deshaun Watson led an impressive first quarter drive to put Houston up 7-0. The Texans didn’t crash the end zone again until the fourth quarter when Watson put up some fourth quarter, garbage time stats after the Chiefs had put the game out of reach.

Last Sunday, Lamar Jackson began 2020 where he left off in 2019. If anyone had any doubt about Jackson’s ability to move the Baltimore Ravens offense through the air they should have been put to rest after last week’s game. He only ran the ball seven times for 45 yards while completing 20 of 25 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Jackson had the top passer rating coming out of Week 1 at 152.1.

Houston did run the ball effectively last week. David Johnson rushed 11 times for 77 yards and the touchdown that gave the Texans their brief 7-0 lead. Johnson is likely the one option Houston has to keep the ball out of Jackson’s hands. Baltimore gave up 5.1 rushing yards per attempt against the Browns.

The spread for this game moved from -6 to -7 as the public money continues to pour in on Baltimore’s side with their Week 1 showing and trends heavily favoring the Ravens. The Texans are 2-6 against the spread at home since 2019 and Baltimore is on a 10-1 run against the spread on the road since 2018.

Add the Ravens minus the points to the best bets list this week. Baltimore is in mis-season form and it appears the Texans are going to need a couple of weeks to find their way.

Baltimore Ravens 33 Houston Texans 20

Best Bets

Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs Miami Dolphins (1PM ET; Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL)

The line for this game opened with the Buffalo Bills favored -3 and has been bet up to -5.5 as of this writing.

Josh Allen connected with his new receiving target, Stefon Diggs eight times for 82 yards against the Jets but their longest connection was for 22 yards. The Bills need to use Diggs more to help spread their offense.

It shouldn’t matter against Miami though. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a rough afternoon with three interceptions by the New England Patriots defense. The NFL should be seeing the debut of Tua Tagovailoa very soon. Dolphins fans don’t have mush else to look forward to this season.

The Bills should have no problem covering the increased spread in Miami to go 2-0 in the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills 27 Miami Dolphins 13

Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 vs Los Angeles Chargers (4:25PM ET; SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA)

This game opened with the Kansas City Chiefs favored by -5.5, got bet heavily by the public to -8.5 and public money is still pounding the Chiefs side of the line.

Kansas City got off to a fast start in their season opener, running up to a 31-7 lead on their way to an easy victory over Houston. The Los Angeles Chargers ran a very efficient offense while generating just enough points to best the Bengals.

Just enough offense isn’t going to cut it against a Chiefs squad that looks prepped for a second straight Super Bowl run.

Kansas City is 10-0 ATS and straight-up since mid-season of 2019. The team is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Chargers. Keep riding the trend.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Los Angeles Chargers 16

Padding for Your Parlay

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers -6.5 (1 PM ET; Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI)

You may think it’s overreacting to take the Green Bay Packers to win a game against the team that fell apart in the fourth quarter against Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears last week. It isn’t though.

Aaron Rodgers and Devante Adams carved up the Minnesota Vikings on the way to a 43-34 victory last week. They should have another big game against a Detroit Lions defense that will be missing their top two cornerbacks this week.

Green Bay Packers 35 Detroit Lions 17

Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (1PM ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA)

Despite taking two leads in their Monday Night Football game against the Tennessee Titans, the Denver Broncos still struggled on offense, putting up 14 points on a struggling Tennessee defense

The Pittsburgh Steelers were strong on offense last week against the New York Giants with Ben Roethlisberger back at the controls.

Benny Snell, Jr. rushed for 113 yards on 19 carries and JuJu Smith-Schuster caught all six of his targets for 69 yards and two touchdowns.

The Broncos will struggle to move the ball against a defense that kept consistent heat on New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and held running back Saquon Barkley to 6 yards on 15 carries last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Denver Broncos 13

The Best of the Rest

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears -5.5 (1PM ET; Soldier Field, Chicago, IL)

This one is tough to pick. Last week the Chicago Bears played three quarters like they were playing for the 2021 first overall draft pick and one quarter like a team that has its quarterback for the next 10 years. Mitch Trubisky completed 12 passes in 15 attempts for 136 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bears to a 27-23 win.

For the New York Giants, Daniel Jones threw three interceptions last week and will be facing a defense that had problems pressuring Matthew Stafford but still held him to a 79.2 passer rating. They will also need running back Saquon Barkley to recover against a run defense that allowed 93 yards to Adrian Peterson.

The Bears showed a strong three-man running attack all game against Detroit. They should be able to carry forward that success against the Giants and ride that group to victory.

Chicago Bears 25 New York Giants 17

Carolina Panthers +8.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1PM ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)

It appears that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has developed a strong relationship with new head coach Matt Rhule. Unfortunately for the Carolina Panthers, they don’t play the same caliber of defense as they had for years under Ron Rivera.

It’s too early in the season to trust the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win a division game by more than one score. It’s not too early in the season to take them to win this game though. Take the Bucs to win but Carolina to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 Carolina Panthers 24

Minnesota Vikings +3 vs Indianapolis Colts (1PM ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)

The Minnesota Vikings put up the points last week but their defense couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers. They should be able to put up points against the Indianapolis Colts and they’re facing an offense that had trouble putting the ball in the end zone against Jacksonville.

Minnesota Vikings 33 Indianapolis Colts 24

Tennessee Titans -7.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Nissan Stadium, Jacksonville, FL)

Nostrathomas was ready to take Jacksonville to cover in this game before the spread dropped from -11 to -7.5. The Jacksonville Jaguars offense didn’t cover a lot of ground last week but they took advantage of Indianapolis mistakes to emerge with a seasonal opening victory. Tennessee won’t be making the same mistakes.

Tennessee Titans 29 Jacksonville Jaguars 21

Los Angeles Rams +1.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles (1PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA)

The Philadelphia Eagles began the week favored by -4.5, the game was bet down to pick ‘em and as of Saturday evening, the Eagles were re-established as favorites.

Unfortunately for Philadelphia, the Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay have never had a problem travelling east to play. The Rams are 6-1 under McVay when playing in the Eastern Time Zone. That should be 7-1 after Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17

San Francisco 49ers -7 vs New York Jets (1PM ET; MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ)

Even without George Kittle the San Francisco 49ers should be more than the New York Jets can handle. The defending NFC Champions will not be starting the season 0-2.

San Francisco 49ers 22 New York Jets 10

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 vs Dallas Cowboys (1PM ET; AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX)

The Dallas Cowboys have dropped from -7.5-point favorites to -3.5-point favorites. Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in the Atlanta Falcons loss last week to the Seattle Seahawks. The question is, can Atlanta’s defense hold down the Cowboys offense. Nostrathomas thinks they can hang do well enough to send the Falcons home as winners.

Atlanta Falcons 32 Dallas Cowboys 26

Washington Football Team vs Arizona Cardinals -7 (4:05 PM ET; State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ)

Kyler Murray will be a lot tougher to pressure by The Football Team than Carson Wentz was last week. Murray also spent Week 1 establishing a strong connection with DeAndre Hopkins. That should get the Cardinals to 2-0 on the season.

Arizona Cardinals 29 Washington Football Team 20

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks -4 (Sunday Night Football, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA)

The New England Patriots are still getting used to Cam Newton at quarterback. Russell Wilson showed last week that he still has a firm hold on Seattle’s offense.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New England Patriots 21

New Orleans Saints -6 vs Las Vegas Raiders (Monday Night Football, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV)

Michael Thomas may be out for the New Orleans Saints on Monday night but Drew Brees has plenty of other weapons at his disposal. That should be enough to spoil the Raiders debut in their new home.

New Orleans Saints 32 Las Vegas Raiders 23

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