Nostrathomas Predicts: NFL Week 11 Begins to Clear the Playoff Picture

Week 11 looks to be one where we will start to get some clarification on the playoff races in the AFC and NFC. With that said, let’s get right to, what promises to be an exciting weekend of football.

Heading into the Week 11 action, Nostrathomas is 48-49-1 against the spread and 63-33 straight-up for the 2020 season.

Game of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs -6 vs Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday Night Football; Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV)

This is the chance that Kansas City is waiting for. They get to try and clear the taste of their Week 5 loss out of their mouths while also taking a near insurmountable lead in  the AFC West.

How do we love the Chiefs to win and cover today? One, no team wants to be the one facing Andy Reid coming off a bye week. Two, Reid holds a huge grudge against Jon Gruden for taking a victory lap around Arrowhead field after the Raiders Week 5, 40-32 victory. Three, 11 players for Las Vegas have been on the reserve/Covid list this week.

The Chiefs finish conquering the AFC West today.

Kansas City Chiefs 35 Las Vegas Raiders 27

Best Bets

Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs Denver Broncos (4:05PM ET; Empower Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver, CO)

This game opened as a “pick em” before public money rolled in on the Dolphins and pushed the spread to where it currently sits.

Miami has won five straight games and six of their last seven, the last three with rookie Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback.

The last time the Denver was at home, Drew Lock threw a touchdown pass with no time left on the clock to give the Broncos a 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Miami isn’t good enough to run the table but their defense and special teams are among the best in the league. That will be plenty to get them past a Denver team that is having problems, especially on defense.

Take the Dolphins to win and cover.

Miami Dolphins 26 Denver Broncos 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings -7 (4:25PM ET; U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN)

Since their bye week, Minnesota has been playing like they still intend to have a say in the postseason picture. The Cowboys will have Andy Dalton back at quarterback, which didn’t help Dallas the last time he started.

Take the Vikings against the dead team walking.

Minnesota Vikings 32 Dallas Cowboys 13

New England Patriots -2 vs Houston Texans (1Pm ET; NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)

This game opened with the Texans favored by two points but changed when public money came in heavy on New England.

The Patriots are second in the league in rushing yards per attempt and they’re facing the team that’s dead last on defense in stopping the run.

Cam Newton won’t have to pass much to bring the Patriots home a winner.

New England Patriots 26 Houston Texans 17

Best of the Rest

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers +2 (1PM ET; Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)

This game opened with Carolina favored by two points but switched to favor the Lions after it was reported that Teddy Bridgewater would miss this game with a knee injury. He could still start against Detroit but it’s expected that XFL sensation, P.J. Walker would start in his place.

One of the problems with this game is that Matthew Stafford is also injured. He is officially listed as questionable with a partially torn ligament in his right thumb. Still, Stafford has played with worse injuries. Expect him to play in this game.

The problem for the Lions is that they will be missing receivers Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola along with starting running back D’Andre Swift. That’s a lot of firepower missing from Detroit’s lineup.

The Lions don’t have the defense to make up for what they’ll be missing on offense. Take the Panthers to pull off the minor upset.

Carolina Panthers 27 Detroit Lions 20

Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns -2.5 (1PM ET; FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH)

Philadelphia had two weeks to prepare for their Week 10 battle with the New York Giants then went out and fell flat on their faces. This week, they get to play a team that’s looking to make their first playoff appearance since the 2002 season.

The Browns have spent the 2020 season losing the games they are expected to lose and winning the games they are expected to win. This game against a bad Eagles team is one they are expected to win.

Cleveland Browns 25 Philadelphia Eagles 21

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 vs Washington Football Team (1PM ET; FedEx Field; Washington DC)

This is a tough game to pick because both teams are very even statistically. Every time you want to pick the Football Team, like Nostrathomas has the past two weeks

The Bengals may have been blown out by Pittsburgh last week but that is only the second time this season when they haven’t been competitive in a game. They’ve played some good teams tough this season and beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 8.

Nostrathomas gives Washington quarterback a world of credit for coming back from the horrific leg injury and complications that he has recovered from but he’s not taking the Football Team to cover the spread for a third week in a row, only to see that game go into the loss column. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

Cincinnati Bengals 30 Washington Football Team 26

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens -6 (1PM ET; M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD)

Both teams are 6-3 and fighting to stay relevant in the AFC playoff chase. This is going to be a battle decided in the trenches. Both teams are fighting injuries in the trenches.

For Tennessee, left tackle Taylor Lewan and Left Guard Rodger Saffold have been ruled out and center Ben Jones is questionable. On defense, the Titans will be without Jadeveon Clowney, cornerback Adoree Jackson and safety Kenny Vaccaro.

On the Ravens side, defensive end Calais Campbell and nose tackle Brandon Williams are doubtful.

With the problems Baltimore has been having on offense, this would be a great spot to take the road dog to pull another upset in Baltimore. However, too many injuries on both sides of the ball and inconsistent special teams play is going to be too much for the Titans to overcome.

Take Baltimore to win and cover.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Atlanta Falcons +3.5 vs New Orleans Saints (1PM ET; Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA)

This game opened with New Orleans favored by 7.5 but dropped when news broke that Drew Brees would be out.

This is a tough game to pick considering that the Saints will be starting Taysom Hill at quarterback with some appearances by Jameis Winston also likely.

New Orleans’ defense will have to do the heavy lifting for the team. Unfortunately for the Saints defense, Matt Ryan knows them pretty well.

Nostrathomas is going to go against his stats spreadsheet and take the road dog to come out on top.

Atlanta Falcons 28 New Orleans Saints 27

Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (1PM ET; TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL)

That the Jaguars were able to stay in their game against Green Bay is more an indictment of the Packers than it is an indication of Jacksonville’s competitiveness.

Last week, Nostratomas recommended Cincinnati plus the points against the Steelers, arguing that Pittsburgh may have been undefeated six of those wins were by one score or less. Then they went out and stomped on the Bengals.

The question for this game is, will the Steelers be peeking past this game to their Week 12, Thursday night showdown with the Baltimore Ravens? Nostrathomas is saying that it doesn’t matter. Take Pittsburgh to win and cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Jacksonville Jaguars 19

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (4:05PM ET; SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA)

Yes, it’s a big spread to expect the Chargers to cover but if they can’t do it against the Jets, Los Angeles should save time and launch Anthony Lynn tomorrow.

Los Angeles Chargers 28 New York Jets 10

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (4:25PM ET; Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)

This game will hinge on the Green Bay’s offense denting the wall put up by the Colts defense.

The last time the Packers faced a quality team they got steamrolled by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Expect Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich to have a few tricks up his sleeve for this one.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Green Bay Packers 22

Los Angeles Rams +4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (Monday Night Football, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)

For Week 11 we have a great Monday Night Football game The Rams defense is very capable of making life difficult for Tom Brady.

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